The Next President

February 22, 2008


Who will be the next President of the United States? Anything is possible, and there is a lot of time before the general election in November, but aside from all the back-stabbing, mud-slinging, and muck-raking which has really just started between the Democrats and Republicans, let’s assume Republican John McCain will face either Democrat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Now, take a look at this little chart, and I will clarify my conclusions.

There are 315 million people in the United States. Of this number, there are 193 million registered voters. Based on historical data, and optimistically skewed forward,  56% of the people who can  vote, or 109 million people will go to the polls and vote for either John McCain or the Democrat. The winner is going to need just over 54.5 million votes. If the trends exhibited by both the Republican and Democratic Primaries/Caucuses hold true, the general election will be close in numbers as to percentages.

There are a bunch of different ways to “play” with these numbers, and voter turn-outs will play a big role, but what is interesting to me, is that race will prove a decisive factor, and in this case, it is going to be Whites that make the difference. I’ll explain.

Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are spending enormous amounts of time and money attempting to capture the Black and Hispanic vote. Given the numbers in the chart, if the Democrat were to receive 100% of the Black, Hispanic, and Asian vote, they would need just over 40% of all white voters to win the election, hardly a mandate.

Certainly, race is an issue in America, just as it is all over the world, but races are no more monolithic voting blocks, as say, men versus women. It is just as naive to believe, for example, that all Blacks would vote for Obama as it is that all Hispanics would vote for Clinton. Some of these votes will be cast for John McCain.

So, who will be the next President? With certainty, either John McCain or the Democrat could win by capturing just under 60% of the White vote, a very doable scenario for either candidate, all other races notwithstanding. What is the key to victory? To me, James Carville said it best years ago when pushing Bill Clinton for President; “It’s the economy, stupid.”

~ X anemi

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